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We quantify the cosmological spread of baryons relative to their initial neighbouring dark matter distribution using thousands of state-of-the-art simulations from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project. We show that dark matter particles spread relative to their initial neighbouring distribution owing to chaotic gravitational dynamics on spatial scales comparable to their host dark matter halo. In contrast, gas in hydrodynamic simulations spreads much further from the initial neighbouring dark matter owing to feedback from supernovae (SNe) and active galactic nuclei (AGN). We show that large-scale baryon spread is very sensitive to model implementation details, with the fiducial simba model spreading ∼40 per cent of baryons >1 Mpc away compared to ∼10 per cent for the IllustrisTNG and astrid models. Increasing the efficiency of AGN-driven outflows greatly increases baryon spread while increasing the strength of SNe-driven winds can decrease spreading due to non-linear coupling of stellar and AGN feedback. We compare total matter power spectra between hydrodynamic and paired N-body simulations and demonstrate that the baryonic spread metric broadly captures the global impact of feedback on matter clustering over variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters, initial conditions, and (to a lesser extent) galaxy formation models. Using symbolic regression, we find a function that reproduces the suppression of power by feedback as a function of wave number (k) and baryonic spread up to $k \sim 10\, h$ Mpc−1 in SIMBA while highlighting the challenge of developing models robust to variations in galaxy formation physics implementation.

 

Extracting information from the total matter power spectrum with the precision needed for upcoming cosmological surveys requires unraveling the complex effects of galaxy formation processes on the distribution of matter. We investigate the impact of baryonic physics on matter clustering at z = 0 using a library of power spectra from the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations project, containing thousands of $(25\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc})^3$ volume realizations with varying cosmology, initial random field, stellar and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback strength and subgrid model implementation methods. We show that baryonic physics affects matter clustering on scales $k \gtrsim 0.4\, h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and the magnitude of this effect is dependent on the details of the galaxy formation implementation and variations of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Increasing AGN feedback strength decreases halo baryon fractions and yields stronger suppression of power relative to N-body simulations, while stronger stellar feedback often results in weaker effects by suppressing black hole growth and therefore the impact of AGN feedback. We find a broad correlation between mean baryon fraction of massive haloes (M200c > 1013.5 M⊙) and suppression of matter clustering but with significant scatter compared to previous work owing to wider exploration of feedback parameters and cosmic variance effects. We show that a random forest regressor trained on the baryon content and abundance of haloes across the full mass range 1010 ≤ Mhalo/M⊙<1015 can predict the effect of galaxy formation on the matter power spectrum on scales k = 1.0–20.0 $h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$.

 

Feedback from active galactic nuclei and stellar processes changes the matter distribution on small scales, leading to significant systematic uncertainty in weak lensing constraints on cosmology. We investigate how the observable properties of group-scale haloes can constrain feedback’s impact on the matter distribution using Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS). Extending the results of previous work to smaller halo masses and higher wavenumber, k, we find that the baryon fraction in haloes contains significant information about the impact of feedback on the matter power spectrum. We explore how the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich (tSZ) signal from group-scale haloes contains similar information. Using recent Dark Energy Survey weak lensing and Atacama Cosmology Telescope tSZ cross-correlation measurements and models trained on CAMELS, we obtain 10 per cent constraints on feedback effects on the power spectrum at $k \sim 5\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We show that with future surveys, it will be possible to constrain baryonic effects on the power spectrum to $\mathcal {O}(\lt 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}})$ at $k = 1\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ and $\mathcal {O}(3~{{\ \rm per\ cent}})$ at $k = 5\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ using the methods that we introduce here. Finally, we investigate the impact of feedback on the matter bispectrum, finding that tSZ observables are highly informative in this case.

 

We present CAMELS-ASTRID, the third suite of hydrodynamical simulations in the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning (CAMELS) project, along with new simulation sets that extend the model parameter space based on the previous frameworks of CAMELS-TNG and CAMELS-SIMBA, to provide broader training sets and testing grounds for machine-learning algorithms designed for cosmological studies. CAMELS-ASTRID employs the galaxy formation model following the ASTRID simulation and contains 2124 hydrodynamic simulation runs that vary three cosmological parameters (Ω_m,σ₈, Ω_b) and four parameters controlling stellar and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. Compared to the existing TNG and SIMBA simulation suites in CAMELS, the fiducial model of ASTRID features the mildest AGN feedback and predicts the least baryonic effect on the matter power spectrum. The training set of ASTRID covers a broader variation in the galaxy populations and the baryonic impact on the matter power spectrum compared to its TNG and SIMBA counterparts, which can make machine-learning models trained on the ASTRID suite exhibit better extrapolation performance when tested on other hydrodynamic simulation sets. We also introduce extension simulation sets in CAMELS that widely explore 28 parameters in the TNG and SIMBA models, demonstrating the enormity of the overall galaxy formation model parameter space and the complex nonlinear interplay between cosmology and astrophysical processes. With the new simulation suites, we show that building robust machine-learning models favors training and testing on the largest possible diversity of galaxy formation models. We also demonstrate that it is possible to train accurate neural networks to infer cosmological parameters using the high-dimensional TNG-SB28 simulation set.

 

As the next generation of large galaxy surveys come online, it is becoming increasingly important to develop and understand the machine-learning tools that analyze big astronomical data. Neural networks are powerful and capable of probing deep patterns in data, but they must be trained carefully on large and representative data sets. We present a new “hump” of the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations (CAMELS) project: CAMELS-SAM, encompassing one thousand dark-matter-only simulations of (100h⁻¹cMpc)³with different cosmological parameters (Ω_mandσ₈) and run through the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation over a broad range of astrophysical parameters. As a proof of concept for the power of this vast suite of simulated galaxies in a large volume and broad parameter space, we probe the power of simple clustering summary statistics to marginalize over astrophysics and constrain cosmology using neural networks. We use the two-point correlation, count-in-cells, and void probability functions, and we probe nonlinear and linear scales across 0.68 <R<27h⁻¹cMpc. We find our neural networks can both marginalize over the uncertainties in astrophysics to constrain cosmology to 3%–8% error across various types of galaxy selections, while simultaneously learning about the SC-SAM astrophysical parameters. This work encompasses vital first steps toward creating algorithms able to marginalize over the uncertainties in our galaxy formation models and measure the underlying cosmology of our Universe. CAMELS-SAM has been publicly released alongside the rest of CAMELS, and it offers great potential to many applications of machine learning in astrophysics:https://camels-sam.readthedocs.io.

 

Abstract We train graph neural networks to perform field-level likelihood-free inference using galaxy catalogs from state-of-the-art hydrodynamic simulations of the CAMELS project. Our models are rotational, translational, and permutation invariant and do not impose any cut on scale. From galaxy catalogs that only contain 3D positions and radial velocities of ∼1000 galaxies in tiny ( 25 h − 1 Mpc ) 3 volumes our models can infer the value of Ω m with approximately 12% precision. More importantly, by testing the models on galaxy catalogs from thousands of hydrodynamic simulations, each having a different efficiency of supernova and active galactic nucleus feedback, run with five different codes and subgrid models—IllustrisTNG, SIMBA, Astrid, Magneticum, SWIFT-EAGLE—we find that our models are robust to changes in astrophysics, subgrid physics, and subhalo/galaxy finder. Furthermore, we test our models on 1024 simulations that cover a vast region in parameter space—variations in five cosmological and 23 astrophysical parameters—finding that the model extrapolates really well. Our results indicate that the key to building a robust model is the use of both galaxy positions and velocities, suggesting that the network has likely learned an underlying physical relation that does not depend on galaxy formation and is valid on scales larger than ∼10 h −1 kpc. 

From 1000 hydrodynamic simulations of the CAMELS project, each with a different value of the cosmological and astrophysical parameters, we generate 15,000 gas temperature maps. We use a state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural network to recover missing data from those maps. We mimic the missing data by applying regular and irregular binary masks that cover either 15% or 30% of the area. We quantify the reliability of our results using two summary statistics: (1) the distance between the probability density functions, estimated using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test, and (2) the 2D power spectrum. We find an excellent agreement between the model prediction and the unmasked maps when using the power spectrum: better than 1% fork< 20hMpc⁻¹for any irregular mask. For regular masks, we observe a systematic offset of ∼5% when covering 15% of the maps, while the results become unreliable when 30% of the data is missing. The observed K-S testp-values favor the null hypothesis that the reconstructed and the ground-truth maps are drawn from the same underlying distribution when irregular masks are used. For regular-shaped masks, on the other hand, we find a strong evidence that the two distributions do not match each other. Finally, we use the model, trained on gas temperature maps, to inpaint maps from fields not used during model training. We find that, visually, our model is able to reconstruct the missing pixels from the maps of those fields with great accuracy, although its performance using summary statistics depends strongly on the considered field.

 

Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) feedback models are generally calibrated to reproduce galaxy observables such as the stellar mass function and the bimodality in galaxy colors. We use variations of the AGN feedback implementations in the IllustrisTNG (TNG) andSimbacosmological hydrodynamic simulations to show that the low-redshift Lyαforest can provide constraints on the impact of AGN feedback. We show that TNG overpredicts the number density of absorbers at column densitiesN_HI< 10¹⁴cm⁻²compared to data from the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (in agreement with previous work), and we demonstrate explicitly that its kinetic feedback mode, which is primarily responsible for galaxy quenching, has a negligible impact on the column density distribution (CDD) of absorbers. In contrast, we show that the fiducialSimbamodel, which includes AGN jet feedback, is the preferred fit to the observed CDD of thez= 0.1 Lyαforest across 5 orders of magnitude in column density. We show that theSimbaresults with jets produce a quantitatively better fit to the observational data than theSimbaresults without jets, even when the ultraviolet background is left as a free parameter. AGN jets inSimbaare high speed, collimated, weakly interacting with the interstellar medium (via brief hydrodynamic decoupling), and heated to the halo virial temperature. Collectively these properties result in stronger long-range impacts on the intergalactic medium when compared to TNG’s kinetic feedback mode, which drives isotropic winds with lower velocities at the galactic radius. Our results suggest that the low-redshift Lyαforest provides plausible evidence for long-range AGN jet feedback.

 

The driving of turbulence in galaxies is deeply connected with the physics of feedback, star formation, outflows, accretion, and radial transport in disks. The velocity dispersion of gas in galaxies therefore offers a promising observational window into these processes. However, the relative importance of each of these mechanisms remains controversial. In this work we revisit the possibility that turbulence on galactic scales is driven by the direct impact of accreting gaseous material on the disk. We measure this effect in a disk-like star-forming galaxy in IllustrisTNG, using the high-resolution cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation TNG50. We employ Lagrangian tracer particles with a high time cadence of only a few million years to identify accretion and other events. The energies of particles are measured by stacking the events in bins of time around the event. The average effect of each event is measured by fitting explicit models for the kinetic and turbulent energies as a function of time. These measurements are corroborated by cross-correlating the turbulent energy with other time series and searching for signals of causality, i.e., asymmetries across zero time lag. We find that accretion contributes to the large-scale turbulent kinetic energy even if it does not dominate in this ∼5 × 10⁹M_⊙stellar mass galaxy. Extrapolating this finding to a range of galaxy masses, we find that there are regimes where energy from direct accretion may dominate the turbulent energy budget, particularly in disk outskirts, galaxies less massive than the Milky Way, and at redshift ∼2.